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Decisionmakers. Uses case study methods to identify the perils of historical analogies and
recommends identifying what is  known, unclear and presumed.
Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World.
Explains the  scenaric approach pioneered at Royal Dutch Shell and argues for making
strategic decisions that will be sound for  all plausible futures.
James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds. Argues that diversity and independence of
even non-expert individuals in groups, properly organized, can reach more accurate
forecasts than individual experts.
M. Mitchell Waldrop, Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Disorder and
Chaos. Introduces the literature of complex systems and suggests why forecasting
anything complicated is so difficult.
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